Let's assume that estimate is good. For some perspective an context, the last finalized DOD budget (2023) was $815B, and, plus supplementals, turned into about $852 billion.
AGI is absolutely a national security concern. Despite it being an enormous number, it'll happen. It may not be earmarked for OpenAI, but the US is going to ensure that the energy capability is there.
This may well be the PR pivot that's to come once it becomes clear that taxpayer funding is needed to plug any financing shortfalls for the industry - it's "too big to let fail". It won't all go to OpenAI, but be distributed across a consortium of other politically connected corps: Oracle, Nvidia/Intel, Microsoft, Meta and whoever else.
The top six US tech companies are generating ~$620 billion per year in operating income (likely to be closer to $700 billion in another 12-18 months). They can afford to spend $2 trillion on this over the next decade without missing a beat. Their profit over that timeline will plausibly be $8 to $10 trillion (and of course something dramatic could change that). That's just six companies.
Fears of an AI bubble originate from the use of external financing needed to pay for infrastructure investments, which may or may not pay off for the lenders.
These 6 companies are using only a small portion of their own cash reserves to invest, and using private credit for the rest. Meta is getting a $30 billion loan from PIMCO and Blue Owl for a datacenter [0], which they could easily pay for out of their own pocket. There are also many datacenters that are being funded through asset-backed securities or commercial mortgage-backed securities [0], the market for which can quickly collapse if expected income doesn't materialize, leading to mortgage defaults, as in 2008.
> but the US is going to ensure that the energy capability is there.
We're doing a pretty shit job of ensuring that today. Capacity is already intensely strained, and the govt seems to be decelerating investment into power capacity growth, if anything
AGI is absolutely a national security concern. Despite it being an enormous number, it'll happen. It may not be earmarked for OpenAI, but the US is going to ensure that the energy capability is there.