That is a pretty fair assessment, and I'll avoid the nominal v. structural subject, but in my experience the difference between static and dynamic typing comes down to metaprogramming. For instance, much of Python's success stems from its dynamic metaprogramming capabilities. By contrast Java's limitations wrt metaprogramming prevent it from competing in areas such as ML and data science / analytics.

One of the most untapped and misunderstood areas in language design is static metaprogramming. Perhaps this is what you meant by "inadequate compilers", but there is no reason why Java can't provide compile-time metaprogramming. With a comprehensive implementation it can compete directly with dynamic metaprogramming, with the benefits of static analysis etc., which is a game changer.