> the LLM crash has come, and OpenAI barely has any material assets
They have claims on the use of assets via their leases.
More directly, if AI crashes in the next 2 years, they get bailed out. Between OBBA, tariffs and immigration enforcement, the American economy less AI is probably already in a recession. Trump and the GOP would get desperate if the political leash the AI boom has granted them is shortened. Borrowing another few trillion dollars to fix it would be worth the gamble.
The American economy minus AI is most definitely in a recession. The common people are struggling to buy groceries. Wages have been stagnant and prices go up and up.
The problem is that AI is ultimately a luxury good. Even at it's currently ultra-subsidized rate, it's hard to justify. If it gets any more expensive, no consumers will buy it.
Which might be fine, if we turn to enterprise. Except: a problem. Companies produce goods, which people then buy. AI can replace labor maybe, but it can't replace consumers.
You are much more optimistic than I am about the attention the present regime pays to anyone who wants money from them, versus those who are promising them planes and donations and outright cash bribes.
Bluntly: nobody in the Trump administration has the ability to soft-land the economy. When the ship is undeniably sinking, the rats will flee.
They have claims on the use of assets via their leases.
More directly, if AI crashes in the next 2 years, they get bailed out. Between OBBA, tariffs and immigration enforcement, the American economy less AI is probably already in a recession. Trump and the GOP would get desperate if the political leash the AI boom has granted them is shortened. Borrowing another few trillion dollars to fix it would be worth the gamble.