What signals have you seen that point to investment being predicated around AGI? Boosting Nvidia stock prices could also be explained by an expectation of increased inference usage by office workers which increases demands for GPUs and justifies datacenter buildouts. That's a much more "sober" outlook than AGI.
In fact a fun thing to think about is what signals we could observe in markets that specifically call out AGI as the expectation as opposed to simple bullish outlook on inference usage.
"Boosting Nvidia stock prices could also be explained by an expectation of increased inference usage by office workers which increases demands for GPUs and justifies datacenter buildouts"
AI is already integrated into every single Google search, as well as Slack, Notion, Teams, Microsoft Office, Google Docs, Zoom, Google Meet, Figma, Hubspot, Zendesk, Freshdesk, Intercom, Basecamp, Evernote, Dropbox, Salesforce, Canva, Photoshop, Airtable, Gmail, LinkedIn, Shopify, Asana, Trello, Monday.com, ClickUp, Miro, Confluence, Jira, GitHub, Linear, Docusign, Workday
.....so where is this 100X increase in inference demand going to come from?
Integrations and inference costs aren't necessarily 1:1. Integrations can use more AI, reasoning models can cause token explosion, Jevons Paradox can drive more inference tokens, big businesses and government agencies (around the world, not just the US) can begin using more LLMs. I'm not sure integrations are that simple. A lot of integrations that I know of are very basic integrations.
While I haven't read the article yet, if this is true then yes this could be an indication of consumer app style inference (ChatGPT, Claude, etc) waning which will put more pressure on industrial/tool inference uses to buoy up costs.
My experience suffering with JIRA daily is that the AI is useless and fairly easy to ignore. If it were actually helpful, I could imagine using it more, and the costs would increase proportionately.
In fact a fun thing to think about is what signals we could observe in markets that specifically call out AGI as the expectation as opposed to simple bullish outlook on inference usage.