It's almost entirely milestone/incentive based. Should Tesla continue on this trajectory, he won't see a dime. Tesla has to hit an $8 trillion market cap, deliver 20 million vehicles, and 1 million robotaxis, and $400 billion in adjusted earnings. Were Tesla to hit those numbers in the specified time frame, Musk's comp would be worth every penny to investors.

Yeah, I'd have no trouble voting for that $1T package. There are way too many conditions. There are lots of ways Musk doesn't get paid. The original $56B package was only revenue and stock price based. If it was like this one, it would also have been based on car deliveries, and solar installs, and stationary battery sales. He would have totally missed on the solar installs, despite being massively successful on everything else.

Also, the basic game theory is obvious. If it’s voted down, Musk might leave, in which case the stock price plummets.

But if Musk left Tesla and the stock plummeted, Musk's wealth would also plummet (Tesla is ~1/3 of his publicly known wealth). So I don't think leaving Tesla is in his interest even if it were voted that he will never get any compensation. If Tesla's value increased, his wealth would also greatly increase, so he should be motivated anyway. With that in mind, other stockholders may vote against the package even if they want him to stay, because it's not in their interest to have their shares diluted to give even more shares to Musk.

Musk leaving Tesla would be the best thing for the brand. They really don't need him, he's become an albatross.

It Musk left and Tesla became a normal car company valued at similar multiples to the other ones it wouldn't be good for Tesla shareholders.

Earn cool 19k on each of the 21 million cars sold? That is some hefty margins to get to those earnings... Especially when you have Chinese models to compete with.

The board can modify those milestones and conditions, no?

The articles are stupid. It's up to $1T IF he raises the stock price ~7x.

It's basically the board saying "uh, sure, if you earn us 8.5 trillion dollars, we'll give you a trillion of it".

It's an absurdly high bar, and the board had no real incentive to not throw it out there. Honestly every board should do this. Why not.

From an outside perspective, it feels wrong that the goal isn't higher earnings but a higher stock price. They don't care about actually creating value, just keep inflating the bubble and you're golden.

If a trillion dollars is on the line, could the stock be manipulated to be higher than that for less than a trillion?

Other private Musk companies (SpaceX and xAI) just bought fleets of Cybertrucks. One may wonder what exactly they would do with so many vehicles other than boost Tesla's share price.

They need them for the Mars colony, duh. You can't drive a gas car on the moon.

Musk's companies buying hundreds or thousands of Cybertrucks is of course good for Tesla, but the impact on finances (and the stock price) should be minimal. Tesla has the capacity to make ~30k Cybertrucks/quarter, and it seems they sold only ~5k of them in Q3. So unless these companies would buy thousands of them per month, it's nothing.

Could TSLA be manipulated? With a priced earnings ratio of 300, the question is: how much more manipulated? How about all of the other fashy tech bros with ridiculous valuations in public and private companies?

There are multiple milestones. Earnings is one of them. So it's actually even harder than just an earnings target.

Welcome to the West? It's been like this for a while now here.

8.5 trillion in 10 years, is 20% growth per year. For comparison S&P 500 grew 25% last year.

I don't believe we will have such growth at all in the next 10 years unless we get hyperinflation

growing 25% when a company is say 50-100b is a lot different than going towards 10 trillion

and valuations are already so stretched across the board

I don't think so either because if we did, Elon Musk could just shut down Tesla, invest all the money in S&P 500 and collect is $1 Trillion at the end of 10 years!

The Nazi salute was the end of it for a lot of folks who had given him grace for awhile

What a monumental fall

Perhaps they will buy a Ford or Volkswagen instead.

Two companies that aren’t currently being run by people throwing nazi salutes; great choices.

Just try and VW ID7 or Audi A6 etron.

If Zombie Ford was still going around pushing antisemitic propaganda, this might be a better argument. As it is it’s just a little silly.

Hey, once musk is dead I'm willing to consider Tesla as well.

I think Musk has announced that Teslas will no longer be made by forced labor.