No, but when remote attestation reveals that you're running an OS that's not blessed by Google, the megacorps will make their apps all refuse to run on your phone. A few already do so today, e.g., the McDonald's app. In practice, I expect a situation where we have two phones: one to run Big Tech's apps, and one to run indie apps.
Roms face a different problem: bootloader locking. But the more Android changes drastically, the harder it is to integrate the AOSP changes into the different open projects
That’s possible on very few phones these days. Only a handful of OEMs still ship phones that can be bootloader unlocked at all (at least in the US), and even several of THOSE require phoning home to the OEM to get an IMEI-dependent unlock key to pass to fastboot.
Source: 7 years of running deGoogled Android phones and 11 years of running ROM’d Android phones before recently moving to iOS and giving up.
Just found this [0] in another thread. Some few allow no unlocks, most allow them under certain circumstances. Some few without a waiting period or additional sacrifices.
So not as great as I thought, but also not as bad as you made it seem ;)
Two of my deGoogled Android phones were Pixels (4a and 7a) and one was a Nexus (6p). I know them well, though I never ran Graphene on them.
Pretty sure I read Google was no longer going to publish device tree sources for Pixel phones, which will make ROM development for them significantly harder, whether or not the bootloader is open.
It is actually getting worse over time imo. In the days of Froyo, you could run Cyanogen easy without needing keys from anyone. Now you got to go to your manufacturer's website to get the key needed to unlock it. Even after you bought the device, you are reliant on the goodwill of the manufacturer to get the unlocking key.
In my opinion, the biggest problem that comes with this, is the fact that google play independent apps will become A LOT less popular. To a point where alternative roms are even less interesting to people which in return makes developing apps for them even less interesting.
Some people even sideload on iOS, which doesn't allow sideloading. They do this by getting an apple developer account, installing Xcode, compiling the apps themselves and refreshing them on their phones every week. And this seems about as popular as Android sideloading where you just download an app and install it...