The issue is that as solar panels become cheaper than dirt, we will find ways to use them which are not "base load" things. Maybe we in the future will factor in the annual Solar Harvest into our energy plans.
>we will find ways to use them which are not "base load" things
If you build solar for much of base load there for those clouded winter weeks where you won't even hope to reach the average winter output then i'm curious what those applications will be that'll fit the model of capitalism.
Are you gonna overbuild 20fold with matching grid (not talking about that north-south connection that Germany can't seem to manage) and have metalurgy industries that will only run in summer?
Or are you going to build/maintain gas plants at a fraction of the cost even if solar panels end up dirt cheap for those weeks where people still want to run their industries and heatpumps and continue to add to the problem.
Looking at my own gov and what i expect from the german one I think I know the answers.
Until that happens, I think we should assume that solar only isn't a viable option. At the moment Finland would need 60x more solar to cover current needs (during daytime), and it's barely winter yet. Sure, you'd get away with 20x in Germany but remember we _all_ need to scale up for actual winters where you can't just say "whoops" if things don't go to plan.
