Ok, ignoring any AGI or massive advances, let's just say an LLM can help the average office worker be 15% more productive... what do you think the economic value of that is?
100 billion a year, with math that’s downright delusional.
So, back of the envelope math, the US GDP is 27.72T USD, 80% (22.18) corresponds to the tertiary sector.
Let’s say that this is a 15% increase over a 10 years period, because YoY a boom like the computer revolution itself looks like 2% increases a year.[1]. This amounts to about 1.5% increases each year.
Let’s just make the huge leap that you can just scale the productivity up of all this just by making typing out reports and emails a faster activity, and summarizing information for which you’re not facing liability if the bot gets it wrong.
Yes, including the nurses, cleaners, truckers, teamsters, all of it.
1.5% of it is a cool 330 billion.
How much of a cut of that productivity increase could AI companies take? 30%? That’s 100 billion in one year there.
So with pie-in-the-sky math, they could break even if their obligations throughout the decade don’t amount to 1 trillion (since those 1.5T in bonds issued this year mature in longer periods)
