How high are the chances that as soon as China produces their own competitive TPU/GPU, they'll invade Taiwan in order to starve the West in regards to processing power, while at the same time getting an exclusive grip on the Taiwanese Fabs?
The US would destroy TSMC before letting China have it. China also views military conquest of Taiwan as less than ideal for a number of reasons, so I think right now it's seen as a potential defensive move in the face of American aggression.
Not very. Those fabs are vulnerable things, shame if something happens to them. If China attacks, it would be for various other reasons and processors are only one of many considerations, no matter how improbable it might sound to an HN-er.
What if China becomes self-sufficient enough to no longer rely on Taiwanese Fabs, and hence having no issues with those Fabs getting destroyed. That would put China as the leader once and for all.
First, the US has advanced fab capabilities and in case of a need can develop them further. On the other side, China will suffer a Russia style blockback while caught up in a nasty war with Taiwan.
Totally possible, but the second order effects are much more complex than "leader once for all". The path for victory for China is not war despite the west, but a war when the west would not care.
Even the US suffers (their veterans do, anyway) but that's the country that in general least suffers from their constant involvement in warfare. They have this industry down to a "T". However, you cannot generalize from a nation that can project military force almost anywhere in the globe, with little fear of repercussion back home; most countries cannot afford this. China certainly cannot.
So what about the rest? Internecine conflicts are outrageously wasteful, and sadly common in the modern age. Russia's war with Ukraine has turned incredibly wasteful and costly, and Russians are suffering (and dying) regardless of whatever Putin says.
I think China is not generally oriented towards waging war. They do have their military, military projects, and their nationalistic things (what I learn from Wikipedia is called "irredentism"), but generally they seem to be trying to become an economic world power. War would mess and interfere with that. War is too fucking risky.
If they have the fabs but ASML doesn't send them their new machines, they will just end up in the same situation as now, just one generation later. If China wants to compete, they need to learn how to make the EUV light and mirrors.
Seems low at the moment with the concept of G2 being floated as generic understanding of China's ascension to where Russia used to be effectively recreating bipolar semi cold war world order. Mind, I am not saying impossible, but there are reasons China would want to avoid this scenario ( probably one of the few things US would not tolerate and would likely retaliate ).
Highly unlikely. Despite the rampant anti-Chinese FUD that's so prevalent in the media (and, sadly, here on HN), China isn't really in the habit of invading other lands.
But China also doesn't see war as the best path forward in Taiwan (they want to return it to the mainland, not lay waste to it). The grandparent comment is unfairly downvoted in my opinion, the fact remains modern China is far less likely to be involved in military campaigns than, say, the US.
