Work that would have taken me 1-2 weeks to complete, I can now get done in 2-3 hours. That's not an exaggeration. I have another friend who is as all-in on this as me and he works in a company (I work for myself, as a solo contractor for clients), and he told me that he moved on to Q1 2026 projects because he'd completed all the work slated for 2025, weeks ahead of schedule. Meanwhile his colleagues are still wading through scrum meetings.
I realize that this all sounds kind of religious: you don't know what you're missing until you actually accept Jesus's love, or something along those lines. But you do have to kinda just go all-in to have this experience. I don't know what else to say about it.
If your work maps exceedingly well to the technology it is true, it goes much faster. Doubly so when you have enough experience and understanding of things to find its errors or suboptimal approaches and adjust it that much faster.
The second you get to a place where the mapping isn’t there though, it goes off rails quickly.
Not everyone programs in such a way that they may ever experience this but I have, as a Staff engineer at a large firm, run into this again and again.
It’s great for greenfield projects that follow CRUD patterns though.
this is just not a very interesting way to talk about technology. I'm glad it feels like a religious experience to you, I don't care about that. I care about reality
it seems to me if these things were real and repeatable there would be published traces that show the exact interactions that led to a specific output and the cost in time and money to get there.
My sympathies go out to the friend's coworkers. They are probably wading through a bunch of stuff right now, but given the context you have given us, its probably not "scrum meetings"..
I don't even care about the llm, I just want the confidence you have to assess that any given thing will take N weeks. You say 1-2 weeks.. thats like a big range! Something that "would" take 1 week takes ~2 hours, something that "would" take 2 weeks also takes ~2 hours. How does that even make sense? I wonder how long something that would of taken three weeks would take?
> They are probably wading through a bunch of stuff right now, but given the context you have given us, its probably not "scrum meetings"..
This made me laugh. Fair enough. ;)
In terms of the time estimations: if your point is that I don't have hard data to back up my assertions, you're absolutely correct. I was always terrible at estimating how long something would take. I'm still terrible at it. But I agree with the OP. I think the labour required is down 90%.
It does feel to me that we're getting into religious believer territory. There are those who have firsthand experience and are all-in (the believers), there are those who have firsthand experience and don't get it (the faithless), and there are those who haven't tried it (the atheists). It's hard to communicate across those divides, and each group's view of the others is essentially, "I don't understand you".
Religions are about faith, faith is belief in the absence of evidence. Engineering output is tangible and measurable, objectively verifiable and readily quantifiable (both locally and in terms of profits). Full evidence, testable assertions, no faith required.
Here we have claims of objective results, but also admissions we’re not even tracking estimations and are terrible at making them when we do. People are notoriously bad at estimating actual time spent versus output, particularly when dealing with unwanted work. We’re missing the fundamental criteria of assessment, and there are known biases unaccounted for.
Output in LOC has never been the issue, copy and paste handles that just fine. TCO and holistic velocity after a few years is a separate matter. Masterful orchestration of agents could include estimation and tracking tasks with minimal overhead. That’s not what we’re seeing though…
Someone who has even a 20% better method for deck construction is gonna show me some timetables, some billed projects, and a very fancy new car. If accepting Mothra as my lord and saviour is a prerequisite to pierce an otherwise impenetrable veil of ontological obfuscation in order to see the unseeable? That deck might not be as cheap as it sounds, one way or the other.
I’m getting a nice learning and productivity bump from LLMs, there are incredible capabilities available. But premature optimization is still premature, and claims of silver bullets are yet to be demonstrated.
Here's an example from this morning. At 10:00 am, a colleague created a ticket with an idea for the music plugin I'm working on: wouldn't it be cool if we could use nod detection (head tracking) to trigger recording? That way, musicians who use our app wouldn't need a foot switch (as a musician, you often have your hands occupied).
Yes, that would be cool. An hour later, I shipped a release build with that feature fully functional, including permissions plus a calibration UI that shows if your face is detected and lets you adjust sensitivity, and visually displays when a nod is detected. Most of that work got done while I was in the shower. That is the second feature in this app that got built today.
This morning I also created and deployed a bug fix release for analytics on one platform, and a brand-new report (fairly easy to put together because it followed the pattern of other reports) for a different platform.
I also worked out, argued with random people on HN and walked to work. Not bad for five hours! Do I know how long it would have taken to, for example, integrate face detection and tracking into a C++ audio plugin without assistance from AI? Especially given that I have never done that before? No, I do not. I am bad at estimating. Would it have been longer than 30 minutes? I mean...probably?
I would love to see that pull request, and how readable and maintainable the code is. And do you understand the code yourself, since you've never done this before?
Just having a 'count-in' type feature for recording would be much much more useful. Head nodding is something I do all the time anyway as a musician :).
I don't know what your user makeup is like, but shipping a CV feature same day sounds so potentially disastrous.. There are so many things I would think you would at least want to test, or even just consider with the kind of user emapthy we all should practice.
I think you have to make a distinction between indvidual experience and claims about general truths.
If I know someone as an honest and serious professional, and they tell me that some tool has made them 5x or 10x more productive, then I'm willing to believe that the tool really did make a big difference for them and their specific work. I would be far more sceptical if they told me that a tool has made them 10% more productive.
I might have some questions about how much technical debt was accumulated in the process and how much learning did not happen that might be needed down the road. How much of that productivity gain was borrowed from the future?
But I wouldn't dismiss the immediate claims out of hand. I think this experience is relevant as a starting point for the science that's needed to make more general claims.
Also, let's not forget that almost none of the choices we make as software engineers are based on solid empirical science. I have looked at quite a few studies about productivity and defect rates in software engineering projects. The methodology is almost always dodgy and the conclusions seem anything but robust to me.
> It does feel to me that we're getting into religious believer territory. There are those who have firsthand experience and are all-in (the believers), there are those who have firsthand experience and don't get it (the faithless), and there are those who haven't tried it (the atheists). It's hard to communicate across those divides, and each group's view of the others is essentially, "I don't understand you".
What a total crock. Your prose reminds of of the ridiculously funny Mike Meyers in "The Love Guru".
But then does this not give you pause, that it "feels religious"? Is there not some morsel of critical/rational interrogation on this? Aren't you worried about becoming perhaps too fundamentalist in your belief?
To extend the analogy: why charge clients for your labor anymore, which Claude can supposedly do in a fraction of the time? Why not just ask if they have heard the good word, so to speak?
I realize that this all sounds kind of religious: you don't know what you're missing until you actually accept Jesus's love, or something along those lines. But you do have to kinda just go all-in to have this experience. I don't know what else to say about it.