> I'm not sure there is enough to conclude this definitely is insider trading. Markets are weird.
This was 6-8x the size all the existing trades on market combined, with zero other publicly available information early on a Monday morning 15 mins before an announcement that significantly moved the market.
Not even the biggest hedge funds in the world with coked up yolo traders go make 1.5 billion dollar bets like that, it simply doesn't happen.
It's egregious and blatant insider trading. The position got closed not long after the news came out.
To be clear when people quote the billion dollar number they are quoting the notional value (of the entire market move of at the announcement).
Those contracts have between 8-15x leverage depending on margin rules.
This doesn’t remove the corruption problem but it brings the number down into realistic values. And while the volumes were odd for the overnight they aren’t that strange for normal hours trading.
This was 6-8x the size all the existing trades on market combined, with zero other publicly available information early on a Monday morning 15 mins before an announcement that significantly moved the market.
Not even the biggest hedge funds in the world with coked up yolo traders go make 1.5 billion dollar bets like that, it simply doesn't happen.
It's egregious and blatant insider trading. The position got closed not long after the news came out.