The US has it's mid-term elections this november, and it's possible, and even likely, that the Democratic candidates will win overwhealmingly. The Democrats are not a monolith, either, the Democratic Socialists of America political group is the very progressive part of the Democratic party, they are the ones that are not accepting dark money campaign donations. I do not agree with a lot of the unrealistic things that some DSA candidates have said, but those or the candidates that aren't winning the primaries. There is a giant blue tidal wave coming in November. Trump will become nothing more than a lame duck "president", and he'll likely be impeached in the House and convicted in the Senate and the Justice System will probably be the final arbiter of his fate. That's the way I see it. And I never believed I would be saying what I just said, but the fact is that since trump was elected, the democrats have flipped 31 (at last count) formorly Republican held seats, and the republicans have flipped exactly zero seats from democrat to republican. The American People are not their goverment, especially right now, even though that's not how it was meant to be, but I know one thing, they are fed up and enough is enough.
I was referring specifically to the US Senate "convicting" chump, not a court. That can only happen if he is succuessfully prosecuted by the US House of Representatives.
I agree that the courts are not predictable in that way, and what I'm talking about will be based on which party controls the house and senate. If the dems win enough seats in both, it's entirely possible for him to be impeached in the house and convicted in the senate. We won't know what the makeup of the house and senate will be after the midterms, so that remains to be seen.
People have no idea. They’re destroying old books. Just like the last time (1), and the time before that (2), and the time before that(3), which were:
1) Nazi Germany, following debt/inflationary collapse of Weimar Republic.
2) Bolshevik Revolution, following WWI induced debt collapse of Tsars.
3) French Revolution, following debt collapse of Monarchy.
Now where are we? 40 trillion in debt. The interest is $1.1 trillion the amount added to it yearly is $2.1 trillion. The entirety of a government spending would need to be wiped out just to keep it where it is.
If you had the books that got burned, you’d know the cycle, and the fact that electing democrats isn’t gonna change a damn thing.
These AI companies know by now that there is no real monetization path that will recoup the over 1 trillion dollars invested by these companies. There is a circular spending spree among large corporations paying each other massive amounts of money to try to make the promise of AI real. It's not. Is it neat? Yeah. Is it reliable? No.
Where the money is not coming from are consumers. There is no consumer market for AI that stands a chance of making these companies profitable.
It's a bubble. Just like the sub-prime mortgage loan debacle of 2008. It's going to burst. These companies are large enough that the government will declare them necessary, and will give a large portion of the taxes we pay to these companies to keep them afloat.
Ah yes, the government bailout, and the government will decide who pays the real price. And that will be me, and you and the rest of us that aren't rich.
These AI companies are aware of this, or they wouldn't take the gamble. So I would have to disagree and say that the government is and will be involved in how all of this plays out.
> Where the money is not coming from are consumers.
This is 100% wrong.
Look at Anthropic's quarterly revenue from AI sales ($11B), OpenAI (6.7B) and XAI ($5B). That's $23B a quarter or $100B annualized. And it's still growing.
Inesting $1T when your revenue is 10% annually and growing quickly is not unusual.
I think the best case scenario is that the democrats win sufficient control of congress that they can both stop the legislative agenda (to the extent it even exists) and interfere enough with presidential executive actions that everything stalls until we reach the next presidential election.
I have exactly zero expectations of real consequences to Trump. He has far too much popular support for that to be realistic. But I will say that everybody else in his regime better hope he writes them a broad preemptive pardon before he leaves office because the teflon only works for him.
> I have exactly zero expectations of real consequences to Trump. He has far too much popular support for that to be realistic.
That's the problem. He has wide support despite gestures around. The thing a large part of the population supports _this_. It's not going away. This is the reason that people are bearish on US future.
Trump knows a lot of dirt on a lot of very powerful people, and he likely has dementia. One thing about dementia is that it can cause people to say things they normally would not say. That's a huge risk to those that are afraid he's going to start blurting out these secrets. That makes him a liability to the kind of people that can make anyone worth more dead than alive.
This is obviously pure speculation on my part, but I think it's quite plausible.
