Because you can easily collude and cheat at poker so it needs to be heavily regulated or outright illegal to prevent theft. You can't really cheat at prediction markets, unless you have insider information which they can litigate after the fact.
Surely you’re being facetious, insider trading is obviously a huge problem that is rarely enforced and we’ve already seen instances of people actively influencing events or using false information to fake the result of a bet
How can you collude and cheat at poker? If there are 4 people playing, and 3 of them "collude", its litterally no different than one person just playing 3 hands at once which shouldn't make any difference. The fact that you would win more hands is offset by the big losses you would take when the 4th person wins.
The edge comes from seeing more cards. That gives you better information than your opponent about who's ahead, meaning both your raises and folds have higher EV than theirs.
The one I remember is from Polymatket, about whether Trump would end the Gaza war by a certain date. I bet no, and it resolved to yes on the basis that Trump said that he ended the war.
