Yes. But I guess my point is that you can't compensate for the opp cost with equity, because the reward is binary.

Theoretically, you could make one of those calculations like the one that says that a 50% chance at 2 million dollars is equal to a sure million dollars. To real-world proof it though, you'd have to factor in risk aversion.

That's called an expected value calculation:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

I'm only pointing it out because I also want to note that it's a great way to determine if the contestants on Deal or No Deal are being boneheads.... ;-)