You're assuming things that could be very well not be true. Maybe he would have ...

scott_s · on Aug 3, 2009

Would you show up empty handed? I wouldn't.

In general, I don't consider preparation wasted effort even if I don't need to call up the actual materials I prepared. If I was better at signaling preparation without actually doing so (read: bluffing), maybe that wouldn't be the case.

caffeine · on Aug 3, 2009

I go into situation A with expected reward 100. I receive reward 100.

Yes - I might have gotten reward 100 by going into the situation with expected reward -12 .. but that would be a dumb thing to do.

That is the nature of acting intelligently under uncertainty - you assume things that might not be true (but probably are).