You're falling into the "exponentation extrapolation" trap. We could be at the s...

tessierashpool · on Jan 28, 2015

that's certainly possible, but people have been saying AGI was just around the corner for fifty years. they've never been right.

rl3 · on Jan 28, 2015

Extrapolating the past as a means of predicting the future is a surefire way to be wrong one day.

The stakes with AGI are such that we can't really afford to be wrong.

tessierashpool · on Jan 29, 2015

people have been getting it wrong for a very long time without any particularly dramatic consequences.

you might be right, but so far so good.