Facebook was a bad idea because MySpace had already won.
LinkedIn was a mediocre idea b/c it would be very difficult to get enough user adoption to be valuable.
Amazon was a mediocre idea b/c people want to go to a bookstore and look at a book before they buy it (usually). Also, that business has no moat (anyone could sell books online).
You're right though - ideas that seem bad are more typically bad ideas. I still think Twitter is a bad idea. :-P
Really the corollary to this is that all the obviously good ideas are already being executed by huge corporations with massive resources and its very hard to compete when you are severely outgunned.
Also, it seems like it's important to have an understanding of the domain that is somewhat counterintuitive and contradicts the common understanding that people have about it.
Also, be lucky. Your "understanding" might be insanity.
1) The public, reading about the idea doesn't know the full idea or the future plans.
2) The bad idea can allow a pivot into a good idea, once you have money and resources.
3) Impossible to predict the future and what will happen. Twitter is a good example of this (celebrity mention, mainstream media mention, civil uprisings, etc.)
Facebook was a bad idea because MySpace had already won.
LinkedIn was a mediocre idea b/c it would be very difficult to get enough user adoption to be valuable.
Amazon was a mediocre idea b/c people want to go to a bookstore and look at a book before they buy it (usually). Also, that business has no moat (anyone could sell books online).
You're right though - ideas that seem bad are more typically bad ideas. I still think Twitter is a bad idea. :-P
Really the corollary to this is that all the obviously good ideas are already being executed by huge corporations with massive resources and its very hard to compete when you are severely outgunned.
Also, it seems like it's important to have an understanding of the domain that is somewhat counterintuitive and contradicts the common understanding that people have about it.
Also, be lucky. Your "understanding" might be insanity.