It may be more likely than I think, but what matters is if it is so much more likely that P(Silicon Valley startup getting funding) < P(Canada/foreign startup getting funding), all other things being equal. Do you think that this is the case?
I don't think that every startup needs to be in the Valley to get funding, but what I've witnessed here is a prime example of "it's not (only) what you know, it's who you know". If you have a viable startup, knowing people that have made names for themselves in the startup scene, many of which are based in Silicon Valley, can go a long way towards getting introduced to potential investors, whether they be angel investors or VCs.
I don't think we're disagreeing on much. Yes, of course, a startup with better connections in the US has a better chance to get funding from US investors, and it's easier for an US startup to make these connections.
My point is that P(Canada/foreign startup getting funding) is greater than zero even with today's visa situation, and is still large enough to make a visa program worthwhile, even if it is smaller than P(Silicon Valley startup getting funding).
I don't think that every startup needs to be in the Valley to get funding, but what I've witnessed here is a prime example of "it's not (only) what you know, it's who you know". If you have a viable startup, knowing people that have made names for themselves in the startup scene, many of which are based in Silicon Valley, can go a long way towards getting introduced to potential investors, whether they be angel investors or VCs.