Banks provide a service to the economy of connecting people with more money than needed right now (savings) to people with less money than needed right now (loans). They make money in between when this goes well. So I would contend the shifting of numbers around actually does provide a good to the economy
I have no idea if technology like this will prove to be scalable, economically competitive, or even practical… but it does seem pretty dang cool as a concept
It's a great way to say "Absolutely no more fossil fuels. For things that need hydrocarbons we'll make them. They cost more but it's better than cooking the planet."
With a side bonus of not sending money to oil rich theocracies like Saudi Arabia and Texas.
Considering agriculture and forestry combined produce about 5 billion tons of methane emissions a year, I don't think there's a shortage of availability.
It'll be a lot more work to capture and direct all that, but the biosphere spins off plenty of decomposition byproducts.
Yes. I've tried using it for pretty straightforward time series forecasts, and I struggled to make it into something useful in a business context.
I'll disclaim that I'm just a finance dude and not a data scientist or programmer. But the documentation leads me to believe that I am in the target audience. I felt like I could grasp the basic mechanics after reading the paper, but I wish the documentation could help someone like me be more intelligent with the 'tuning' of the model. I could never get accuracy below 15% average error, which is too large for my use case.
Probably user ignorance, but that's my experience.
You are the primary audience. Time series forecasting with deep learning is fraught with inconsistency. Someone on r/ML went pretty hard on detailing a survey and the stuff that was SOTA 10 years ago still is. Wish I saved that thread. The dude was well published.
I updated my comment with the thread but it was actually about time series anomaly detection. Turns out it was the same dude in your second link, and your comment includes forecasting in the first link as well. Thank you!
aaaaand i just spent 3 hours watching that, trying to remember some parts of calculus, and reading all of the wikipedia articles and "also see" that were grey on white in the video. Then i fell asleep, but i wanted to thank you, as i also thanked the Prof. that made that video (on reddit).
This looks to me like something they’d be using for internal capacity planning. If so, they’d be asking it questions like, “how much capacity do we build out for the upcoming holiday rush?” I wouldn't be surprised if financial datasets are very noisy compared to service capacity metrics. I didn’t read the paper though, maybe this is addressed and maybe I’m wrong about the use case! But stuff like the below from the docs reads like capacity planning tool to me:
> As an example, let’s look at a time series of the log daily page views for the Wikipedia page for Peyton Manning. We scraped this data using the Wikipediatrend package in R. Peyton Manning provides a nice example because it illustrates some of Prophet’s features, like multiple seasonality, changing growth rates, and the ability to model special days (such as Manning’s playoff and superbowl appearances).
I'm sad to see no one has responded with a solution to your problem. You are absolutely the target audience, and in my experience, Prophet is "as good as it gets" to generalized forecasting.
I've been surprised at how little adoption of the Python data / viz toolkit gets picked up in finance settings, when it seems like such a natural fit, so I wrote this post to help unpack it.
respectfully, I'm not so sure. The decline in bonds applies to all fixed-rate securities. The only alternatives would have been just straight up cash (bad with inflation) or riskier, less-liquid assets (non-tradable loans with floating rates, for example). They are limited on the latter by risk weighting, and I'm not sure having looser risk controls on the asset side would really help confidence in the banking sector.
a depositor isn't going to deposit 1 billion and only expect 1 billion back out months later. that's some poor people shit. Large sums of money like that, banks pay you for the pleasure of holding it. So a bank offering 4.5% APY like SVB offers would owe an extra 3.2 million to the billionaire if they look at their account a month later.
The problem is, the underlying assets that SVB owns will only pay them back at 1% APY, and only in 20 years or whatever, and the billionaire has been promised 4.5%APY and is expecting to have access to one months worth of interest next month. that 3.5 difference is thus a huge problem for SVB.
Short term treasuries are definitely pretty common on the asset side, but if you refuse to honor withdrawals on demand deposits you won't have a bank anymore and the FDIC will step in to wind things down
Could you clarify what you mean about the dollar in your pocket worth more than debt at 3% interest?
In corporate finance net cash or net debt is indeed standard practice (cash on balance sheet less debt on balance sheet). It sort of helps understand how much cash is ‘available’ to give back to investors, or pay down debt, spend on R&D, etc.
Now since most of MSFT’s long term debt matures in 2027 or after, you could argue that there is not much cash need for debt repayments in the near term. On the other hand, cash flow from operations was down year over year in their last reported quarter so belt tightening is probably needed to reverse that trend.
> In corporate finance net cash or net debt is indeed standard practice (cash on balance sheet less debt on balance sheet). It sort of helps understand how much cash is ‘available’ to give back to investors, or pay down debt, spend on R&D, etc.
I'm not a financier, but isn't "available cash" the amount left over after subtracting the amount needed to service (rather than clear) the debt?
The cash available on an ongoing basis to be re-invested or returned to investors is what you might call levered free cash flow [0], which I think is what you are referring to.
My comment about "available" cash is more like available for big one-time investments like a big acquisition, a special dividend, or something like that.
> "You can’t use rental income when calculating your debt to income ratio."
Do you have a source for this claim? Based on personal friends who work in the lending / single family rental home space, I don't think that's correct. [0] [1]
If that's actually the case, and many of those mortgages are adjustable-rate, then we've learned nothing and another 2007 may be inevitable.
Fortunately, I still believe that the overwhelming majority of new rental units are being scooped up and placed on market by commercial entities, not individuals. You may have many individuals putting their second house up for rent, but I'm skeptical that banks are giving individuals a half-dozen loans in series. With the housing shortage as bad as it is (we're just not building enough to offset our population growth), I suspect that commercial entities would swoop in and buy up most second houses that individuals couldn't maintain anymore.
Formerly worked in Investment banking: it is a huge huge determinant of value.
Particularly for a lower-dividend, higher growth company like Nvidia, the vast majority of the present value comes from the terminal value (what someone else will pay you for it when you're done holding the investment), made even more extreme by low interest rates.
> Couldn't it transform into a high-dividend company?
This is cigarette-butt investing. It ignores terminal value. If the terminal value is already close to zero, it's the right move, an orderly wind-down and re-allocation of assets. If there is terminal value, it's a pillaging. Cases like these, where the terminal value starts looking more theoretical than practical, are how those incentives shift.
The terminal point doesn't necessarily have to apply for the company, or even the financial asset based on the company.
There is an simple model in finance [1] that collapses an infinitely growing stream of cash flows into a finite present value. So to your example of coca-cola, even if you assume they will exist and distribute growing profits forever, you can still find a terminal value.
To my knowledge some ultralights use regular unleaded (called MOGAS in some aviation contexts) and of course anything that you can buy an airline ticket for outside of perhaps Alaska will use jet fuel.
